South Korea Plans to Lower AI Data Center Power-Demand Forecast
DataNews Editorial Team
South Korea’s government intends to reduce its forecast for electricity demand from AI data centers after finding that corporate demand behind announced AIDC mega-projects was less confirmed than initially expected. Climate, Energy and Environment Minister Kim Sung-hwan said the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand will reflect companies’ actual plans and validated demand rather than all previously announced, uncertain AIDC load.
- South Korea plans to revise downward its AI data center electricity-demand forecast.
- The 12th Basic Plan is expected to prioritize confirmed corporate demand over uncertain announced AIDC load.
- The announced first phase totals 8.4 GW, with 7.9 GW included in August provisional demand estimates.
- A 10 GW second phase was excluded from provisional estimates because of demand uncertainty.
- No specific scale for the forecast reduction has been confirmed by the minister.
South Korea is preparing to lower its electricity-demand forecast for AI data centers, signalling a more cautious approach to reserving generation and grid capacity for large announced AIDC developments.
During a parliamentary audit on October 26, Climate, Energy and Environment Minister Kim Sung-hwan said the government would use companies’ real plans and confirmed demand in preparing the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand. He indicated that not all previously declared but uncertain AI data center demand would be incorporated into the plan.
The adjustment relates to three AIDC mega-projects announced in June, each structured for delivery in two phases. The first phase totals 8.4 GW, of which 7.9 GW was included in provisional demand estimates for the Basic Plan in August. A further 10 GW associated with the second phase was excluded from those provisional estimates because demand remained uncertain.
The minister did not specify the size of the forthcoming reduction. A 3–4 GW reduction was raised in a legislator’s question, which cited a media report and described the potential change as roughly halving planned demand, but Kim did not confirm that range.
For data center developers, colocation operators and power-sector participants, the policy direction suggests that access to capacity may increasingly depend on contractually substantiated load and projects with credible delivery plans. The approach could defer demand that had previously been reflected in power planning until corporate commitments and implementable AIDC projects are confirmed.
The revision could align generation and grid-resource planning more closely with contracted and substantiated AI data center load rather than preliminary corporate declarations. For AIDC developers and the power sector, it raises the importance of demonstrable demand when seeking capacity and planning new projects.
- — / October 26, 2026Source →